"evidence for a hypothesis is represented as green, evidence against is represented as red, and the white area reflecting uncommitted belief that can be associated with uncertainty in evidence or unknowns....Hmmm. Never mind the tiny sensitivity of climate implied. Just consider the clarity of thought involved here.
As a litmus test question, I prefer the following:
Will the climate of the 21st century will [sic] be dominated by anthropogenic warming (green) or natural variability (solar, volcanoes, natural internal oscillations)?
which is the question with the greatest policy relevance, IMO. My scores on this one are
- green 25%
- white 50%,
- red 25%.
Do you think this creature is a duck?Well, that clears it up, thanks.
Not duck: 25%
I am 50% uncertain whether it is a duck, and I am equally 25% certain that it is a duck and that it isn't a duck.