Batting Average Change: an analogy to climate change/severe events discourse. Suppose a hitter has improved batting average this year
Now you see the batter get a base hit. Somebody asks you whether the base hit was because of the improved batting average.
The alarmist says "Of course the base hit was caused by the batting average! Batting averages cause hits!"
The Polyanna says "Obviously not! In fact, the base hit has nothing to do with the batting average!"
The journalist sees that truth must be somewhere in between. https://drboli.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/the-duck/ … SOME hits are caused by batting average, some not
The wise scientist publishes a paper attributing 20% of the base hit to the improved batting average, the rest to natural variation.
This happens every time there is a base hit. For some reason, this discourse illuminates nobody.