tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post2050158400898228823..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: How we talk about extreme events nowadaysMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-25876288780717365342015-08-22T18:52:33.318-07:002015-08-22T18:52:33.318-07:00Do we attribute a hot year to the long-term rising...Do we attribute a hot year to the long-term rising GMST trend? No, we attribute it to the underlying cause(s) of the trend plus, yes, natural variation. So you don't seem to have framed this correctly. Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-16104860417353984602015-08-22T12:56:32.526-07:002015-08-22T12:56:32.526-07:00Easy to work steroids into the analogy; I decided ...Easy to work steroids into the analogy; I decided not to.<br /><br />The point is that we understand statistics well enough about sports - why are we so confused when they are about climate?<br /><br />An event is part of the statistics of a system. The statistics do not cause the event in whole or in part. The aggregate of events cause the statistical measure. <br />Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-91254408555456692282015-08-22T12:38:49.177-07:002015-08-22T12:38:49.177-07:00Not sure about baseball analogies since the steroi...Not sure about baseball analogies since the steroid scandals. Give me a good ol' Harry Potter analogy or a Godwin invocation any day.Gingerbakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14211637630936981883noreply@blogger.com