tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post2166924901452942982..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: CO2 -> plants -> hydrologyMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-51809964455291779842007-09-26T10:05:00.000-07:002007-09-26T10:05:00.000-07:00Firstly, thanks Hugh & Michael for allowing my ind...Firstly, thanks Hugh & Michael for allowing my indulgence. <BR/><BR/>Secondly, that's still very interesting information Hugh and I think I know the area if not the actual building. The more general stuff is also all new and interesting as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-9720854917306174482007-09-26T06:58:00.000-07:002007-09-26T06:58:00.000-07:00Hi Adam Sorry but I'm not aware of the building's ...Hi Adam<BR/> <BR/>Sorry but I'm not aware of the building's location in the city (I have great respect for my friend's concerns over commercial confidentiality so I never ask too much... even though planning applications and SFRAs are public documents the consultants still get very spooked when site specifics are spoken about). All I know is that it was a substantial commercial premises set amongst other newish commercial premises.<BR/><BR/>As far as Meadowhall goes, I'm afraid I don't really know the city (I research community resilience to low-probability coastal flooding) but to have a requirement for the AEP + 20% any development would only have been planned during the last couple of years as the EA Flood Map, Catchment Flood Management Plans, PPG25 (now PPS25) and, most recently, SFRAs came into effect.<BR/>For info the Sheffield SFRA was only completed by Jacobs last December and now acts as 'the' document the LPA will use to clarify which part of the floodplain any prospective development will sit on<BR/><BR/>http://www.sheffield.gov.uk/planning-and-city-development/planning-documents/background-reports/strategic-flood-risk-assessment<BR/> <BR/>Sorry I can't be more help.<BR/> <BR/>Hugh<BR/> <BR/>PS. In relation to the Foresight report mentioned in my earlier response I'm conscious that I used the phrase 'non-mitigation assumptions'. Just to clarify I used 'mitigation' in the 'hazards' sense of the word rather than the climatology sense i.e. to include all structural and non-structural measures (levees, land use planning etc.) rather than just emissions reduction. I suppose you could sustitute 'non-adaptation assumptions'<BR/><BR/>Thnx for allowing the deviation MichaelHughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02839451338728784445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-50010625495126437482007-09-25T05:35:00.000-07:002007-09-25T05:35:00.000-07:00Michael, The lower soil moisture comes from lower ...Michael, <BR/><BR/>The lower soil moisture comes from lower overall rainfall & more episodic precipitation (lower overall rainfall because of the reduced HOHvap transport). Afforestation programs seek, for one reason, to reinstate the HOHvap transport that plants provide and remember the BOR around the turn of the 20th C tried to green up the American West by afforestation.<BR/><BR/>And in this sort of regime pcpn infiltration into the soil is harder because it is more difficult to saturate soil when it is dry (IIRC Van Der Waals forces). Moist soil absorbs pcpn more easily than dry soil - Colorado cities tell their folk to run their irrigation cycles twice to efficiently water - the first (short) cycle moistens the soil and the second cycle gets absorbed. <BR/><BR/>Best,<BR/><BR/>DDanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709762632849004871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-12130786503118642362007-09-25T01:54:00.000-07:002007-09-25T01:54:00.000-07:00Apologies for the personal digression, but being a...Apologies for the personal digression, but being a Sheffield resident this statement has raised curiosity:<BR/><BR/>"However, I'm aware of a recently new development in Sheffield that was built to an AEP + 30% standard had water lapping at the door tread in the June flooding"<BR/><BR/>Which development was that Hugh? Obviously if it was a private development just the area would be interesting.<BR/><BR/>Also, how much of the Meadowhall area was done to the 20% FRA? The road there seems to (flash) flood reasonably frequently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-64219842963841698582007-09-24T20:37:00.000-07:002007-09-24T20:37:00.000-07:00Dano, I don't get it. Closed stomata means less wi...Dano, I don't get it. Closed stomata means less withdrawal of moisture from the root system which means moister soils, which is what Betts et al are warning about.<BR/><BR/>As for the snowpack, there's not much call for that in these parts, but yes, of course that will contribute to water stress in the other Colorado River (not <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_%28Texas%29" REL="nofollow">the one in Texas</A>...)Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-63274964790721238082007-09-24T20:12:00.000-07:002007-09-24T20:12:00.000-07:00Well, if my EnvHort degree still rattles around in...Well, if my EnvHort degree still rattles around in my brain correctly, the lower soil moisture due to closed plant stomata will foster more weedy plant invasion and lower atm HOHvap transport, which will likely foster droughty conditions (something Dano brought up years ago as a problem). Increasing drought trend in the American West will certainly wreak short-term havoc with forest health, which may mean less snowpack and attendant reservoir storage problems. <BR/><BR/>Erin needs to point out that it is <I>growth</I> and <I>metabolism</I> response that FACE has issues with, not stomatal closing which, IIRC, persists. <BR/><BR/>Anyway, we have our indicators. Now can we find the political will to manage to them or use them to manage to goals?<BR/><BR/>Best,<BR/><BR/>DDanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709762632849004871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-33177242653705062282007-09-24T15:55:00.000-07:002007-09-24T15:55:00.000-07:00Erin,I'm not a biologist, but I think you are conf...Erin,<BR/><BR/>I'm not a biologist, but I think you are conflating a couple of effects. This isn't about CO2 fertilization, which is certainly limited by availability of other resources (among them climate stability).<BR/><BR/>It's about drought resistance. Plants are always in a tradeoff between losing water through transpiration and gaining CO2. If there is more CO2 about, they don't need to expose themselves to as much water loss. This has two benefits from the point of view of those of us in semiarid zones: 1) the plants are hardier to drought and 2) they absorb less water and release less to the atmosphere, thus increasing runoff and hence water availability for other purposes.<BR/><BR/>The first point is good news all around, I'd think, (some ecologist will presumably find an invasive species that porves me wrong, but until then anyway...) but the second is bad news for flood sensitive regions; the plants will not help you as much as they would have.<BR/><BR/>All true at biomass equilibrium.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-41741325099194155382007-09-24T15:08:00.000-07:002007-09-24T15:08:00.000-07:00A possible reason why this hasn't gotten a ton of ...A possible reason why this hasn't gotten a ton of press is because of the data we have involving how long plants respond to CO2 levels. In the FACE (free atmospheric CO2 experiment) experiments funded by NSF throughout the US (and the world) as well as in smaller chamber experiments of plants grown in pots, the response of most plants to increased CO2 levels is relatively short lived. <BR/><BR/>This is why we can immediately dismiss anyone who tries the "CO2 is just plant fertilizer" response to concerns about greenhouse gas emissions. I'd be interested in seeing some long term data on plant responses of the type described by Betts et al. before I get too concerned that what they observed may be a long term effect.Erinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02956300097686544991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-75583506307138697872007-09-24T14:12:00.000-07:002007-09-24T14:12:00.000-07:00MichaelYes the Foresight report is a resonably dep...Michael<BR/><BR/>Yes the Foresight report is a resonably depressing read, however, their findings are based on 'without mitigation' assumptions so one would hope that we may be able to keep things down a bit.<BR/><BR/>From a different perspective, in the UK we operate a 'plan based' planning system (Regional, Local and site specific all integrating seamlessly) which, under the new Planning Policy Statement 25 now requires that a Flood Risk Assessment (FRA), is completed for all planned development. Although site specific FRAs are still pretty straightforward (especially if your new garage isn't on the floodplain), to prepare the more Strategic FRAs involves a fair bit of modelling (done by consultants not the EA). Currently the climate change allowance in most SFRAs is for a projected <STRONG>20%</STRONG> increase in flow (ontop of current 1% annual exceedence probability) to cover until 2100.<BR/>However, I'm aware of a recently new development in Sheffield that was built to an AEP + 30% standard had water lapping at the door tread in the June flooding whilst others built to the lower SoP got flooded (appreciating of course that that event was of lower prob than AEP). It's got people wondering.<BR/><BR/>Regards<BR/><BR/>HughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-9337580046396276692007-09-24T12:46:00.000-07:002007-09-24T12:46:00.000-07:00Just got this nice comment in email (Thanks!):Mich...Just got this nice comment in email (Thanks!):<BR/><BR/>Michael,<BR/> <BR/>I tried to comment on your blog but I couldn't get the mark up to work. The EA is the UK's Environment Agency. I am not sure of their job description, but amongst other things they look after water quality and regulate waste disposal. They produce an excellent interactive map which highlights all the environmental risks in the area. Zoom in on the Thames to the east of London. The area on the south banks of the Thames is called the Thames Gateway and is where the government want to build a large number of the new houses they keep promising.<BR/> <BR/><A HREF="http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/mapController" REL="nofollow">EA</A><BR/><BR/>I also looked for the 20 times reference. This is possibly the source - the Foresight Report, written in 2004 - that suggests that damages from floods could increase from £1 billion now to £25 billion "in the worst case scenario" though I have not read the report to find out when they think the worst case scenario could occur.<BR/> <BR/><A HREF="http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/763964/763974/?version=1&lang=_e" REL="nofollow">Foresight Report</A><BR/> <BR/>Thanks for the In it for the Gold blog and all your comments on Real Climate. They are a real inspiration to fight the misinformation and start making changes in ones lifestyle.<BR/> <BR/>JeremyMichael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.com