tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post3133204742708099216..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: There Are Skeptics and Then There Are SkepticsMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-56063527397590262992010-07-06T16:02:14.593-07:002010-07-06T16:02:14.593-07:00It's a little OT, Michael, but I just wanted t...It's a little OT, Michael, but I just wanted to note that your assessment of Pat Michaels ("a person with irrational, unexamined beliefs") is off the mark in terms of explaining his role in the "debate." IMHO the better explanation is that he's simply in it for the gold.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-57996308900155528112010-07-06T15:47:11.052-07:002010-07-06T15:47:11.052-07:00The cognitive errors that lets some take demonstra...The cognitive errors that lets some take demonstrations of uncertainty and confuse them for arguments for continuing the status quo:<br /><br />(For the following, substitute for "plausible" the phrase "developed/confirmed to such a degree that it is perverse to withhold provisional assent")<br /><br />1) To inform a rational choice of actions, plausible full narratives compete solely with other plausible full narratives. If I open a door, and in the bright light of the room see a breathing tiger across the room, it is rational to step back out of the room and close the door. Any demonstration of uncertainty of my ability to tell a living tiger from a amusement park animatronic tiger is not an argument to stand motionless at the open threshold. The demonstration of uncertainty can be used to choose between plausible full narratives by discounting some narratives, but it (the demonstration of uncertainty) doesn't have the power to construct a plausible full narrative in opposition to the one under consideration, much less make the opposite of the considered action rationally attractive.<br /><br />2) Rational action and rational inaction are both born of rational choice. By changing the language, changing the viewpoint, changing the scope, we can phrase action in terms of inaction, and inaction in terms of action. So what is temporally/culturally/situationally described as an action/intervention is under no extra burden of rational justification than what is likewise described as inaction/absence-of-intervention, and inaction does not have a lesser burden of rational justification than action. (Imagine that the decision to burn fossil fuels is remade on the 1st of each year, for example, with a corresponding decision of how much. So burning fossil fuels in the new year is the intervention, and we wish study if that intervention is rational.)<br /><br />3) Demonstratively persuading plausible full narratives are not in competition with a swarm of idiosyncratic narratives that are each in contradiction with all others of the swarm. The contradictions inside the swarm renders the whole swarm repellent to the rational. From the swarm should emerge a small number of demonstratively persuading plausible full narratives, first, to challenge the mainstream narrative, second. Or else it is more likely the idiosyncratic narratives are just a symptom of the opposition to the mainstream being handicapped by debilitatingly idiosyncratic minds, incapable of meaningful rational persuasion.<br /><br />Consider the inability to construct a plausible full narrative for a wide conspiracy to assassinate JFK from those who find fault with details of the many investigators that agree that Oswald was the sole gunman. Consider the inability to construct a plausible full narrative for a wide conspiracy throughout the US government to bring down the Twin Towers by controlled demolition from those who find fault with the details of the many investigators. Consider their pathetic nature. Likewise, note that those who would dispose of the mainstream narrative about carbon emissions and climate disruption and ocean acidification shirk from the burden of supplying an persuading plausible full narrative in opposition. How quickly they rush to use the art of controversy! Is it because they have no alternative?manuel moe ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04878149837118503541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-3637151509944459172010-07-06T13:03:45.784-07:002010-07-06T13:03:45.784-07:00"If we know nothing at all, there is no basis..."If we know nothing at all, there is no basis for any decisions!"<br /><br />Thus the attacks on what we know by those who dislike the implications of the needed decisions. But I suppose we knew that (too).Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-26727686706864470382010-07-06T12:33:11.808-07:002010-07-06T12:33:11.808-07:00Indeed, if nothing is known, knowledge offers no g...Indeed, if nothing is known, knowledge offers no guidance for behavior. I am presuming that the respondent accepts, directly or via some authority that he or she accepts, that the greenhouse effect exists and that human activities are causing greenhouse gases to accumulate.<br /><br />This is a fairly modest requirement.<br /><br />If we know nothing at all, there is no basis for any decisions!Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-4710563151567391332010-07-06T12:23:36.651-07:002010-07-06T12:23:36.651-07:00Your logic is applicable to those persons who trus...Your logic is applicable to those persons who trust the basics of the climate science which experts present and are skeptic in quantitative matters.<br /><br />When writing the previous comment, I supposed those persons who suspect large uncertainty in the basic premises.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13437041108856598560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-43368808267131874332010-07-06T11:53:53.896-07:002010-07-06T11:53:53.896-07:00No, I respectfully disagree.
Consider two cases. ...No, I respectfully disagree.<br /><br />Consider two cases. <br /><br />Case 1: Climate sensitivity is known to be 3 C/doubling with 100% certainty.<br /><br />Case 2: Climate sensitivity is equally likely to be near 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 C.<br /><br />Now consider that cost may go as the cube of sensitivity.<br /><br />Case 1: expected cost is 27 units.<br /><br />Case 2: expected cost is 45 units.<br /><br />This is with a linear uncertainty. However, I expect uncertainty may be logarithmic. So consider a third case:<br /><br />Case 3: Sensitivity is equally likely to be 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, or 12.<br /><br />Expected cost is 395 units. <br /><br />Justification for picking the cube for cost function is arbitrary and only used as an example. <br /><br />We know, however, that the cost is nonlinear and concave upward, because an increase of no more than 85 C (permanent destruction of life on earth) has infinite cost, while an increase of .5 C has modest cost, far less than 1/170 of the total value of the earth.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-48526168162527983322010-07-06T11:18:39.690-07:002010-07-06T11:18:39.690-07:00> As I’ve said many times, the more doubtful a ...> As I’ve said many times, the more doubtful a person is of the science, the more vigorously they ought to support vigorous greenhouse policy.<br /><br />They should naturally support vigorous policy in <i>adaptation</i> to climate change. It may be called mitigation of climate-related disasters, but it is not <i>mitigation</i> in IPCC's sense.<br /><br />If we consider the future climate is uncertain whether or not we change our habit to burn fuel, ther will be no incentive to change the policy on fuel.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13437041108856598560noreply@blogger.com