tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post4703426888408848121..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: The Rolling Urgency ParadoxMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-62251238110926877112011-08-03T17:46:04.582-07:002011-08-03T17:46:04.582-07:00It's not that hard to figure out. We have bee...It's not that hard to figure out. We have been screwed since the beginning. The only question, ever, was how long it would take for us to devour our primary sources of sustenance, since we exercise no restraint.<br /><br />http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2011/06/i-blame-prometheus.html<br /><br />I know, it's depressing. The only question remaining then is, having acknowledged the inevitable, what should be our response?<br /><br />That is where poetry, music, dance, painting and other forms of art become the answer.Gail Zawackihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01800944469843206253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-12206431357564884502011-08-03T13:48:21.842-07:002011-08-03T13:48:21.842-07:00(looks up obtuse in the dictionary, wondering if t...(looks up obtuse in the dictionary, wondering if there's a picture of Tom there)Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-50534586206587343602011-08-03T13:37:54.696-07:002011-08-03T13:37:54.696-07:00Ohhh, Dr. Tobis. So it is more in sorrow than in a...Ohhh, Dr. Tobis. So it is more in sorrow than in anger that I am evicted from this section of the Commons.<br /><br />And you were doing so well over at Keith's. <br /><br />Happy fretting and fuming. Your regulars will tell you waited far too long to do this. I will suggest that it's far too late.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-91095423036618664812011-08-03T12:52:21.249-07:002011-08-03T12:52:21.249-07:00Tom, feel free to start not participating at any t...Tom, feel free to start not participating at any time. As far as I am concerned here, you are entirely welcome to turn your attentions elsewhere...Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-15276174033105531892011-08-03T12:49:43.947-07:002011-08-03T12:49:43.947-07:00It's too late to prevent the problems we'v...It's too late to prevent the problems we've already committed ourselves to by our inaction so far; it's never too late to prevent the problems ten more years of inaction will commit us to.Eric Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688525347746547529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-18127946268827652652011-08-03T12:38:53.714-07:002011-08-03T12:38:53.714-07:00The beauty of a fact free argument is that there i...The beauty of a fact free argument is that there is literally nothing to dispute. <br /><br />You win! We're doomed!<br /><br />Umm, what was the climb in global mean surface temperatures in the last 10 years? Make it 30 years to provide statistical significance and smooth out some lumpy years?<br /><br />What was the sea level rise in the past 30 years?<br /><br />It's easy to panic about weather-related damages when you're living in the middle of a drought zone. <br /><br />But damages due to climate change have not yet started, notwithstanding vehement claims to the contrary.<br /><br />You can work yourselves up into a frenzy as much as you want. But because it is a fact free frenzy, pardon me if I don't participate.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-39735723418242576662011-08-03T07:03:27.642-07:002011-08-03T07:03:27.642-07:00Ok, catching up on some comments since I started t...Ok, catching up on some comments since I started typing my last.<br /><br />RW makes a good point about needing to articulate "otherwise Y". AND it's not just that because we delayed for the last ten years that we are that much closer to damages, or that we have that much more difficult a mitigation "ask" to achieve certain targets. Consider just the update to the "burning embers" analysis over the last ten years. "Otherwise Y" is getting magnified along various vectors...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-2891347211069446462011-08-03T06:54:03.438-07:002011-08-03T06:54:03.438-07:00@ James: "imposing any deadline is primarily ...@ James: <i>"imposing any deadline is primarily a political and rhetorical device."</i><br /><br />I can't say I agree here. (Although you do stick the "primarily" modifier in there!)<br /><br />If you are looking to avoid some target level of atmospheric CO2 concentrations - arbitrary as that is - and say it is 450ppm for argument's sake. With concentrations rising at, what?, 1.7 ppm per year, it's inarguable that certain periods of delay on mitigation will preclude meeting such targets. Either we will simply blow past them if we wait long enough, or, if we wait a somewhat shorter time but then decide to act, we may need to be decarbonizing at some rate of 20% or more per year for an extended period of time, and that would be considered economically/technically/logistically infeasible.<br /><br />I wouldn't characterize presenting these realities or trade-offs as "rhetorical".<br /><br />I think Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows' papers on this are instructive, as is <a href="http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/programme.php" rel="nofollow">his presentation</a> at the 4 degrees conference at Oxford in the fall of 2009. And as simple as they are, the <a href="http://rustneversleeps.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/fig-22-with-caption.jpg" rel="nofollow">implied mitigation curves for various start dates</a> by the WGBU make the stark implications of delay apparent.<br /><br />I realize that ultimately it is a question of choices and priorities, but I don't think that stipulating that "unless we act within the next 10 years, these are the implications" is rhetoric. I think it is simply laying out the bare facts of the situation...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-58707741619704222002011-08-03T06:53:56.104-07:002011-08-03T06:53:56.104-07:00James, yes it is a rhetorical device, but it seems...James, yes it is a rhetorical device, but it seems to me that it replaces a conceptual framework that most nonscientists lack. <br /><br />The problem really is urgent in terms of its own time constants. That those are long compared to familiar concerns does not mean we can neglect the problem for many e-folding times. How do you express that to someone unfamiliar with the concept? <br /><br />(I note in particular that economists have no grasp of the principles of scaling.) <br /><br />This sense of urgency seems to most people incompatible with the decadal time scale. "Ten years" is the amount of time it takes the situation to get substantially worse. We have delayed at least twenty years. Now the problem is substantially bad. Another ten and it will get dreadful, and another ten after that and we may be verging on overwhelming.<br /><br />And of course, those are only guesses. Perhaps I am off by a decade or two on "overwhelming", but I doubt that it is much more than three decades of delay in the future, and find it perhaps as likely that it is upon us now.<br /><br />Of course this uncertainty has little to do with climate science per se, and more with intuitions about impacts and costs. But the policy sector cannot cope. They want best estimates.<br /><br />So the best estimate is what it always was. "You'd better get your act together in the next ten years or the problem will get substantially worse." It's quite possible for this to be true. But it doesn't ring true to the nonscientist.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-5332672645963903932011-08-03T06:40:47.844-07:002011-08-03T06:40:47.844-07:00Alastair, I don't expect you to understand thi...Alastair, I don't expect you to understand this, but the very fact that surprises are surprises means that the risk rises smoothly. Whether or not there are tipping points, if we don't actually know when they kick in, all the real deadlines are obscure, and we are, insofar as we can know, gradually worse off form year to year until we get a policy commensurate with the evidence.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-52343867822061763662011-08-03T06:21:22.198-07:002011-08-03T06:21:22.198-07:00The thing that's essential and often missing i...The thing that's essential and often missing is the "otherwise..." Certainly, we always can say we have ten years to act. But the "otherwise" is always changing. If it's missed off, the statement looks incoherent and inconsistent, but if people had said ten years ago "we have ten years to act, otherwise X", and now were saying "we have ten years to act, otherwise Y" where Y is worse than X, then it would be totally coherent and consistent.RWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07858934058244484435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-53752887496376284972011-08-03T04:11:23.175-07:002011-08-03T04:11:23.175-07:00James,
The cost of oil has not risen smoothly. W...James, <br /><br />The cost of oil has not risen smoothly. Why should the cost of replacing it rise smoothly?<br /><br />Of course it is possible to "prove" that it rises smoothly by drawing a trend line or considering only a small section of the curve. But that is just a trick used by mathematicians divorced from the real, at times chaotic, world.<br /><br />We have been warned about <a href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347" rel="nofollow">"Inevitable Surprises"</a>. If we knew when they will happen or what they are then they would not be surprises, but that does not mean they are not still inevitable.Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15152292130415788120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-7351359608151406072011-08-03T01:32:21.830-07:002011-08-03T01:32:21.830-07:00If it sounds bogus and incoherent and inconsistent...If it sounds bogus and incoherent and inconsistent, then maybe the correct conclusion is....that it actually is bogus and incoherent and inconsistent.<br /><br />The real answer (as I'm sure you know) is that the risks and costs rise more or less smoothly, and imposing any deadline is primarily a political and rhetorical device.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-23442026486816619732011-08-02T23:29:36.018-07:002011-08-02T23:29:36.018-07:00Related (h/t KOtR):
Not a shortage of energy but ...Related (h/t KOtR):<br /><br /><a href="http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/transcript-nate-hagens-were-not-facing-shortage-energy-longage-expectations" rel="nofollow">Not a shortage of energy but a longage of expectations</a>Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.com