tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post7200216040885960861..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: World Doesn't End in 2100Michael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-70175519106320296952007-12-21T13:12:00.000-08:002007-12-21T13:12:00.000-08:00That was my favourite part of Alley's presentation...That was my favourite part of Alley's presentation. It may be hard to relate the distant future to the public -- 2100 is hard enough to wrap your mind around -- but the fact is there's likely to be a lot of residual warming in the pipeline even in a stabilization scenario. In our study on climate change and coral reefs in the Caribbean, we found that hardy / more "adaptable" corals (which may not exist, mind you) may not experience chronic bleaching in a scenario in which concentrations stabilize at 550 ppm in 2100. But if you run the model out another hundred years, the residual warming becomes a serious problem for the corals.Simon Donnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01844831377442275615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-8435971093486274472007-12-20T13:12:00.000-08:002007-12-20T13:12:00.000-08:00You can see Lonnie Thompson's presentation on the ...You can see Lonnie Thompson's presentation on the AGU site; unfortunately the camera stayed on his face and not his slides so it's really pretty frustrating.<BR/><BR/>As far as I know most of AGU is unrecorded.<BR/><BR/>Nobody said we are great at PR. The contrary, alas, is true...<BR/><BR/>Alley's closing remark was memorable, something like "On the whole, I'm an optimist, but I have to say that if you warm ice enough, it will melt."Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-42511101019398761912007-12-20T12:53:00.000-08:002007-12-20T12:53:00.000-08:00I don't spose the talks were videotaped, were they...I don't spose the talks were videotaped, were they?<BR/><BR/>I would love to be able to see Alley's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-14106399069133699552007-12-18T15:53:00.000-08:002007-12-18T15:53:00.000-08:00I'll claim that 'the world', meaning modern civili...I'll claim that 'the world', meaning modern civilization, will end far, far sooner than that.<BR/><BR/>Say 2034 CE.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-12313818111952071702007-12-17T20:41:00.000-08:002007-12-17T20:41:00.000-08:00There are arguments both pro and con, but I've fou...There are arguments both pro and con, but I've found this useful more as a response to "but SLR will only be xx by 2100."<BR/><BR/>"Yes, but do you think the world ends in 2100?"<BR/><BR/>I.e., I do run into the "If only it's OK in 2100, all is well" thing.<BR/><BR/>I'd also observe that younger folks than we actually seem to care what 2100 looks like.John Masheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17786354229618237133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-46105491527412003472007-12-17T15:12:00.000-08:002007-12-17T15:12:00.000-08:00It is a bit troubling that the "real" line tends s...It is a bit troubling that the "real" line tends so often these days to be outside the WCS estimates....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-54974999626736274502007-12-17T14:51:00.000-08:002007-12-17T14:51:00.000-08:00I wrote this reply on my blog, but I'll paste it i...I wrote this reply on my blog, but I'll paste it in here:<BR/><BR/>Its a fair point, and one that is often forgotten. However... its one that I have come to increasingly downweight as time goes by. For two reasons. One is practical: it simply won't work as a way of motivating people. If thats your best argument, the public won't listen. And the public, being very impatient of depth, aren't going to listen to anything but your best argument, if that. The second is that predicting societal and technological changes past 100 years is impossible. Even 100 years is pushing it, but further is just too much.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.com