tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post6611310607221664159..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: The first meterMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-36281210484937827642007-08-14T16:08:00.000-07:002007-08-14T16:08:00.000-07:00This article continues to get hits, and today I sa...This article continues to get hits, and today I saw some from Dow Chemical. <BR/><BR/>I am not sure exactly why, but this spooks me a little bit. <BR/><BR/>As orientation for industrial bigwigs who might happen by, while I am pro-regulation, I'm not by any means anti-corporate or anti-industry. This point of view, (which I would call "social democratic") was conventional wisdom when I was a kid; now it is almost forgotten, but it definitely shouldn't be and it's due for a revival.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, welcome to my blog, set a spell, make yourself at home.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-40366737834424698812007-08-10T12:16:00.000-07:002007-08-10T12:16:00.000-07:00Response to the latest anonymous poster:Will the o...Response to the latest anonymous poster:<BR/><BR/><EM>Will the obsolete plants be replaced before the sea level rise kicks in? </EM><BR/><BR/>Sort of. There's a lot of tendency to replace things in place. Rome was founded in what, the 7th century BC. New York is almost four hundred years old. Individual structures get replaced but a nexus of activity tends to stay in one place.<BR/><BR/><EM>Is the current sea level rise rate indicative of the future? </EM><BR/><BR/>I strongly doubt it, as explained in the linked article.<BR/><BR/><EM>Is the current or projected sea level rise rate geologically unprecedented? </EM><BR/><BR/>No, not at all. There is less ice to melt, so in the end the amount that melts will not be more than has happenned in the past.<BR/><BR/><EM>Is the anticipated sea level rise <B>historically</B> unprecedented? </EM><BR/><BR/>You betcha. Industrial civilization has never seen anything like the sea level rise rate we anticipate, though. Many of our behaviors are predicated on the existence of "real estate" which may turn out to be less real than people like to think.<BR/><BR/><EM>So "it's math"?</EM><BR/><BR/>As long as you include statistical reasoning, sure. As I explain in the linked article, we don't have a clear idea of when these events will actually hit. People with large investments near coastlines ought to start taking this matter into consideration in their calculations. <BR/><BR/><EM>Is AGW necessarily a disaster?</EM><BR/><BR/>On the populated coastlines, eventually, I think the answer is yes. We just don't know when. People who live in jurisdictions with significant exposure ought to be taking it into consideration in their politics for purely selfish reasons. The US, and in particular Texas, are clearly at risk. It is an unfortunate historical and cultural accident that we don't perceive this. We also are incredibly inventive and could actually solve the problem if we stopped whining and conspiracy-spinning. We can win this game instead of whining that it's stacked against us.<BR/><BR/><EM>Is there any way out of this mess?</EM><BR/><BR/>At the Bob Bullock history museum I was instructed that "the best way to get anything done is to tell a Texan it's impossible". This may not be our most endearing characteristic but we might want to get that can-do spirit into gear for this problem.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-75935175929666174952007-08-10T07:53:00.000-07:002007-08-10T07:53:00.000-07:00Do you really think sea level will rise 1 meter be...Do you really think sea level will rise 1 meter before these plants are obsolete and replaced anyway? Remember the 3mm per year sea level rise rate currently(very low by historic standards during this interglacial BTW, so why is AGW a disaster?), it's math.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-83238065439260285852007-08-04T15:48:00.000-07:002007-08-04T15:48:00.000-07:00Anonymous is correct.The white tank car appears to...Anonymous is correct.<BR/>The white tank car appears to have DOWX printed on it - and that belongs to the Dow Chemical Company, the picture is near Freeport, TX.<BR/>Many of the towns in the area have protection levees around them, and there are many pumping stations to pump the rainwater out - we are talking about millions of gallons a minute folks!<BR/>The train tracks have their own bridges to get across levees, rivers,and streams.<BR/>If there were a sudden rise in the sea level, most all of the cities and all of the chemical plants would be able stay up out of the water. Though not pictured, one of the plants near Freeport began construction in 1940, and produced magnesium for the war effort. Though no longer producing magnesium, the plant still producea a variety of chemicals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-80618004098345276812007-08-04T12:19:00.000-07:002007-08-04T12:19:00.000-07:00There is more than one levee in that area! They a...There is more than one levee in that area! They are there for flood control/prevention.<BR/>The one I mentioned is on either side of a barge canal, which the overpass goes over, as well as the rr tracks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-87524368427076116382007-08-04T10:05:00.000-07:002007-08-04T10:05:00.000-07:00Not sure what anonymous is going on about. How did...Not sure what anonymous is going on about. How did the train track get past the levee?Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-66540077333127993722007-08-04T09:24:00.000-07:002007-08-04T09:24:00.000-07:00I don't know what the purpose of your blog, but he...I don't know what the purpose of your blog, but here is a few thoughts from an outsider:<BR/>This picture is NOT of BASF.<BR/>Perhaps if you had stopped somewhere and bothered to ASK someone, you would not be posting inaccurate information.<BR/>Also, many times, these plants are built near convenient modes of transportation. In this area, it is the Gulf of Mexico and the Intracoastal Waterway - and railroads.<BR/>If you would have looked, you would have seen there are levee's on either side of the bridge you were on when you took the picture. They are there to protect from rising water. Unlike New Orleans. they are NOT below sea level - yet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-50131532453545878162007-07-31T12:41:00.000-07:002007-07-31T12:41:00.000-07:00John, as a guess, I would think the plants are con...John, as a guess, I would think the plants are constantly upgraded. I think it is difficult to expect a chemical production plant to say "This piece of infrastructure will last 50 years, and we expect the entire plant to be abandoned in 30, so we shouldn't build it." When to stop investing is a big issue.<BR/><BR/>Of course the scale of the problem is very dependent on magtnitude as well as rate of sea level rise. It turns out that this is one of the least well-constrained of the major decades-to-centuries climate predictions.<BR/><BR/>We don't really know yet. We do know that the more carbon we pump the faster the rise, and we are seeing indications that there are tipping points along the way.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-85332461846996006872007-07-31T09:40:00.000-07:002007-07-31T09:40:00.000-07:00How does the usable lifespan of plants like this c...How does the usable lifespan of plants like this compare to the time frame of sea level rise? In other words, is it a trivial and routine problem? When the old one's obsolete, build the new one farther inland? Or is it an expensive problem - sea level rise forces the plant to be abandoned before its useful life is over?John Fleckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01945772782727225745noreply@blogger.com