tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post90409318244686595..comments2023-09-28T08:13:11.489-07:00Comments on Only In It For The Gold: Not BoringMichael Tobishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-44462245140086335972011-04-28T15:35:15.185-07:002011-04-28T15:35:15.185-07:00http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/torna...http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/tornadoes-2011_b_855032.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-10117446478116016462011-04-28T15:05:31.651-07:002011-04-28T15:05:31.651-07:00Paul, I would say, more or less by definition, not...Paul, I would say, more or less by definition, not at all.<br /><br />What's more the worst case is more bad than the best case is good. The risk spectrum weighs the dangerous side of the response spectrum. The expected cost of each individual component of disruption exceeds the cost of the expected disruption. <br /><br />People who find this baffling need to learn a little bit about statistics.<br /><br />So, overall, given multiple roughly independent possible disruptions of high uncertainty, we don't know which one or ones will bite the hardest, but we can say with some confidence that the worst one will bite pretty hard. Yeah, statistics again.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-4474437814859424392011-04-28T14:58:31.727-07:002011-04-28T14:58:31.727-07:00I think it's reasonable to ask, without person...I think it's reasonable to ask, without personalizing, if there is any more likelihood for the minimal harm scenario (<i>exempli gratiae</i> trivial impacts to sea level rise, end of world hunger <i>et cetera</i>) than for the maximal-harm scenario (increase in deaths from heat stress, collapse of the food chain, mass extinction <i>und so weiter</i>).Paul Daniel Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17633446166342778475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-74265958192403757432011-04-28T10:37:50.695-07:002011-04-28T10:37:50.695-07:00As for Tom's question to me, it is not an off-...As for Tom's question to me, it is not an off-topic follow up to the essay. But it is unreasonably demanding on blog timescales. It would be a huge endeavor. There's plenty written about the spectrum of impact questions for anyone willing to do their homework, although WG II AR4 is not all that impressive in my opinion.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-21720072553204229042011-04-28T10:36:48.042-07:002011-04-28T10:36:48.042-07:00"Tom, I like the naive optimism that develope..."Tom, I like the naive optimism that developed countries will just help those poor countries.<br /><br />And if those countries would just get a bit more developed, oh, how wonderful it would be."<br /><br />Marco, is this fair? Tom recommends help to the poor countries. That's a prescription, not a prediction. Do you not agree with the suggestion?<br /><br />Note, however, $150 B over a century $1.5 B over a year. Assuming this is a transfer form the richest third to the poorest third in a population of 9 B, it amounts to a half dollar per capita.<br /><br />I am not sure it is worth mentioning in the broad brush context.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-43041781130346021122011-04-28T10:28:32.631-07:002011-04-28T10:28:32.631-07:00Marco has identified the foundation of Fuller'...Marco has identified the foundation of Fuller's denialism. The reality in Bangladesh, according to the <a href="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/05/bangladesh/belt-text" rel="nofollow">National Geographic</a>, is this:<br /><br />"Today India seems determined to close and fortify its border, girding against some future mass migration of the type hypothesized in Washington. It's building a 2,500-mile security fence along the border, and security guards have routinely shot people crossing illegally into India..."<br /><br />Meanwhile, "All around Bangladesh bright, ambitious, well-educated young people are plotting their exit strategies." So much for development.Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-1546325711667181662011-04-28T07:15:11.824-07:002011-04-28T07:15:11.824-07:00Has anyone put together a list worldwide 100 yr fl...Has anyone put together a list worldwide 100 yr flooding events since 2009? It would make an interesting follow up to the Min study in Nature, which did fingerprinting on precipitation ending in 2008. I know Masters and Heat online follow the stories but I'm looking for comparisons of global flooding for several 2-3 year time periods also, such as mid 70's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-25247371432787367272011-04-27T22:46:52.492-07:002011-04-27T22:46:52.492-07:00Tom, I like the naive optimism that developed coun...Tom, I like the naive optimism that developed countries will just help those poor countries.<br /><br />And if those countries would just get a bit more developed, oh, how wonderful it would be.Marcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07262670367947223521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-1808508344989202792011-04-27T20:57:49.652-07:002011-04-27T20:57:49.652-07:00Pete --- About 60 meters higher, I think.<b>Pete</b> --- About 60 meters higher, I think.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-46557714750892801052011-04-27T18:54:09.424-07:002011-04-27T18:54:09.424-07:00Don't bother, Tobis. Boring.Don't bother, Tobis. Boring.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-14550970657921014612011-04-27T17:23:40.883-07:002011-04-27T17:23:40.883-07:00We are heading for 450 or more ppm CO2. What was s...We are heading for 450 or more ppm CO2. What was sea level last time CO2 got that high?Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17383755657072251973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-57028671386785101242011-04-27T17:23:39.957-07:002011-04-27T17:23:39.957-07:00The Drowned World
JG BallardThe Drowned World<br />JG BallardAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-30334010491083013982011-04-27T17:17:32.416-07:002011-04-27T17:17:32.416-07:00The Nile delta is what fraction of Egypt's are...The Nile delta is what fraction of Egypt's area. The Nile delta is what fraction of Egypt's =agricultural land. <br /><br />The Red River delta is what fraction of Vietnam's area. The Red River delta is what fraction of Vietnam's agricultural land. Throw in the Mekong for small change.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-72092973662182485212011-04-27T16:53:50.742-07:002011-04-27T16:53:50.742-07:00OK, I admit the conversation here is not what I ha...OK, I admit the conversation here is not what I had hoped for. But what can I do? I can hold for moderation, and moderate only for excellent, insightful comments. That's tedious for me, frustrating for others striking up a conversation, and irritating to those I flush.<br /><br />The blog medium is not made for sifting and winnowing. It's possible to envision alternatives. But meanwhile, erring on the side of openness and trust usually has modest costs.<br /><br />Drawing the line with Mosher was more expensive, but I couldn't let people think our points of agreement mean that I forgive him for his role in the recent fiascos.<br /><br />Fuller is sort of an everyman. His ideologies drive his opinions, methinks. (I suppose this is true for everyone. The definition of a scientist almost comes down to being able to resist this tendency to some extent.) I don't think he is malign. I think he is quite representative of the sort of resistance we face, wherein realism about our circumstances is regarded as extremism. So although he isn't as interesting as he thinks in the way he thinks, his opinions always fascinate me as diagnostic of an upside-down idea of what "reasonable" means.<br /><br />But now we have to create a Fuller thread again to avoid all converstaion being about fuzzy middle-of-the-roadism...Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-44110122060311176142011-04-27T16:12:52.239-07:002011-04-27T16:12:52.239-07:00MT:
"I have taken to repeating Itzhak Rabin&...MT:<br /><br />"I have taken to repeating Itzhak Rabin's line 'You don't make a peace treaty with your friends'."<br /><br />Your use of that quote in this context is so wrong on so many levels that it's not even wrong. The war you should be fighting isn't a war for MT, it's a war for scientific thinking. And you do want to win that war, and win 100%, not sign a peace treaty.<br /><br />-- frankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-48511129116242135402011-04-27T16:11:11.391-07:002011-04-27T16:11:11.391-07:00Yeah, but you won't talk to the topic. You say...Yeah, but you won't talk to the topic. You say my questions are good, but you don't offer any answers.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-82131563304281997842011-04-27T15:19:15.000-07:002011-04-27T15:19:15.000-07:00Tom, you are getting Gishy. Try to stay on one thi...Tom, you are getting Gishy. Try to stay on one thing at a time, please.<br /><br />All, including Tom, the topic is not Tom Fuller.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-36923393868572297122011-04-27T14:49:27.433-07:002011-04-27T14:49:27.433-07:00Here is the propaganda I spew, having published it...Here is the propaganda I spew, having published it in several venues various times:<br /><br />Global warming is a serious issue that needs to be addressed starting now.<br /><br />I favor a carbon tax starting now, at $12/ton, re-evaluated against benchmarks every ten years.<br /><br />I favor technology transfer to developing countries to help them prepare for and combat climate change at $150 billion per annum.<br /><br />I completely support the EPA's regulation of heavy emitters of carbon dioxide.<br /><br />I have said this for years, at examiner.com, on other weblogs, in our book, and here.<br /><br />And yet I am the denier here.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-32718748376153463832011-04-27T14:40:00.433-07:002011-04-27T14:40:00.433-07:00Well, you are a better man than I, MT. I guess th...Well, you are a better man than I, MT. I guess that's why I follow your blog.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13955691670049830140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-52209790333531770422011-04-27T14:31:46.109-07:002011-04-27T14:31:46.109-07:00I have taken to repeating Itzhak Rabin's line ...I have taken to repeating Itzhak Rabin's line "You don't make a peace treaty with your friends". <br /><br />Keeping communication open with people who are at best stubbornly confused is an ongoing cost. Failing to do so, however, reinforces the claim that we are afraid to defend our position, or that we have not got an adequate basis for it.<br /><br />On the other hand, it leads to going round in circles about old news rather than moving the conversation forward, which is in many ways more important.<br /><br />I have some ideas about how to do this, but Blogger isn't the tool for the job. Do stay tuned.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-1289983092407937832011-04-27T14:26:26.329-07:002011-04-27T14:26:26.329-07:00Michael,
Recently I saw a lecture by Michael Coll...Michael,<br /><br />Recently I saw a lecture by Michael Collins (the Apollo 11 astronaut) on you tube where he spoke to some of your concerns regarding the current notion that economic growth is a thing which we can have without let into the future. <br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJGzK23jVVk&feature=fvsr<br /><br />Mr. Collins observed that when he was orbiting the Moon the population of Earth was some 3 billion people. He further stated that our numbers are more than 6 billion and are headed to 8, "so the experts tell us." He goes on to say:<br /><br />"In my view this growth is not wise, healthy, or substainable. The loss of habitat, the trashing of the oceans, the acumulation of waste products, this is no way to treat a planet."<br /><br />"Yet how do you stop it? Our economic models are all predicated on growth. The require it. Grow or die, or maybe both."<br /><br />It is somewhat encouraging to hear him say these things. As you say, "You don't achieve short term victories by saying "we need to lose the growth imperative, we need to reorganize, we need to urbanize, we need more calculus and more spinach, less ATV riding and less barbecue." It's not a product that is easy to sell," but at least you aren't the only one making the observation.Padraighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15958089317701870858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-57922296865204354842011-04-27T14:26:14.074-07:002011-04-27T14:26:14.074-07:00Michael, here you are again engaging a propagandis...<i>Michael, here you are again engaging a propagandist. I can't imagine it being of interest to lurkers, it being too repetitive aside from the content, so what gives?</i><br /><br />Indeed--and propagandist is a polite term. <br /><br />I am baffled at what the point may be. Do you imagine, MT, that Fuller will ever be anything better than what he has been? What sign has he ever given that he might?<br /><br />Often, MT, you remind me of the indefatigable enabler of a hopeless drug addict: loaning credibility to the Fullers, Kloors and Pielkes to tide them over just a bit longer in the hope they'll get clean and sober at last.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13955691670049830140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-51763338293445157752011-04-27T14:23:02.788-07:002011-04-27T14:23:02.788-07:00Steve, I do not limit conversation to people who a...Steve, I do not limit conversation to people who agree with me. <br /><br />"I reserve the right to delete comments that are rude, excessively contentious, repetitive, or spammy."<br /><br />I don't see any of the above happening as yet in the present round. Fuller has taken some harsh hits with grace. So far he is ahead on points, actually.<br /><br />The objective of being maximially interesting is not achieved by ignoring any opposition.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-950350370393338552011-04-27T14:01:53.968-07:002011-04-27T14:01:53.968-07:00Bangladesh has a coastline of between 710 kilomete...Bangladesh has a coastline of between 710 kilometers along the Bay of Bengal. Most of the country is low-lying and 17% would be heavily impacted by sea level rise as high as one meter.<br /><br />However, they are fortunate in the short length of exposed coastline and in the ability of river deposits to compensate for subsidence. Given even a lukewarm response from the outside world, which has been quick to aid Bangladesh in the past, SLR could be mitigated (and efforts are beginning using river silts) at a reasonable percentage of GDP.<br /><br />Given the value of the land at risk, they have no option but to combat sea level rise.<br /><br />The best defense for Bangladesh would in fact be a rising GDP to make the costs bearable.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8524070301101240472.post-88452270096482933522011-04-27T13:52:22.309-07:002011-04-27T13:52:22.309-07:00Michael, here you are again engaging a propagandis...Michael, here you are again engaging a propagandist. I can't imagine it being of interest to lurkers, it being too repetitive aside from the content, so what gives?Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.com