The only thing we can be sure of about the future is that it will be absolutely fantastic. So if what I say now seems to you to be very reasonable, then I have failed completely. Only if what I tell you appears absolutely unbelievable, have we any chance of visualizing the future as it really will happen.

- Arthur C. Clarke (h/t Brin)

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Some Key Papers in Climate Modeling History

A first pass at a greatest hits list; updates will not necessarily be noted as such. I had a request for key papers in the history of modeling so the emphasis leans that way. Also a few books listed.

Nominations welcome.


Peer Reviewed Primary Publications

Charney, Fjortoft & von Neumann 1950:
Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation,
Tellus 2:237-254


Lorenz 1963:
Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow
J. Atmos. Sci 20:130-141

Smagorinsky 1963:
GENERAL CIRCULATION EXPERIMENTS WITH THE PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 91, 99–164.

Budyko 1969:
The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth
Tellus
21:611-619.

Manabe & Bryan 1969:
Climate calculations with a combined ocean-atmosphere model.
J Atmos Sci 26:786

Bryan & Cox 1972:
The circulation of the world ocean a numerical study. Part I, a homogeneous model
J Phys Oceanog

Hasslelmann 1976:
Stochastic Climate Models.
Tellus 28:473-485

Arakawa & Lamb 1977:
Computational Design of the basic processes of the UCLA general circulation model. (link to abstract only)
Methods in Computational Physics 17:173-265

K Bryan 1979:
Models of the World Ocean (link to abstract only)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans. Vol. 3, pp. 327-338. July 1979

Hansen et al 1988:
Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model.
J. Geophys. Res.
, 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/88JD00231.

Manabe & Stouffer 1988:
Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.
J Clim 1:841

Ramanathan et al 1985:
Trace gas trends and their potential role in climate change.
J Geophys Res 90:5547-5566

Harvey 1989:
Transient Climatic Response to an Increase of Greenhouse Gases.
Climatic Change 15:15-30.

Cess et al 1990:
Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in nineteen atmospheric general circulation models

Bryan 1991:
Poleward heat transport in the ocean: a review of a hierarchy of models of increasing resolution.
J Phys Oceanog 18:851-867

Cubasch et al 1992:
Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
Climate Dynamics 8:55-69, DOI: 10.1007/BF00209163

Hansen et al 1992:
Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 19, NO. 2, PP. 215-218, 1992 doi:10.1029/91GL02788

Hansen et al 1998:
Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era.
PNAS vol. 95 no. 22 12753-12758

Bengtsson 1999:
From short-range barotropic modeling to extended-range global weather prediction.
Tellus 51 A-B:13-23

Lea, Allen & Hayne 2000:
Sensitivity analysis of the climate of a chaotic system.
Tellus: 52A:523-532

Hansen et al 2005:
Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications.
Science Vol. 308. no. 5727, pp. 1431 - 1435 DOI: 10.1126/science.1110252

Hack et al 2006:
Simulation of the Global Hydrological Cycle in the CCSM Community Atmosphere Model Version 3.
J Clim Volume 19, Issue 11

Schmidt et al 2006:
Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data.
J. Climate
, 19, 153–192.


Reviews

Schneider & Dickinson 1974:
Climate Modeling
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, VOL. 12, NO. 3, PP. 447-493, 1974 doi:10.1029/RG012i003p00447


V Ramanathan, JA Coakley 1978:
Climate modeling through radiative-convective models
Reviews of Geophysics:

F Bretherton 1982:
Ocean Climate Modeling.
Prog. Oceanog 11:93-129

Claussen et al 2002:
Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models
Climate Dynamics Volume 18, Number 7, 579-586, DOI:10.1007/s00382-001-0200-1

Schmidt 2007: The physics of climate modeling

Rahmstorf et al 2007: Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections. Science 316:709 DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843


Reports

Lorenz 1967:
The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere.
WMO.

Mesinger & Arakawa; 1976 (Vol 1) and 1979 (Vol 2):
Numerical Methods Used in Atmospheric Models (vol 1 is available online).
Global Atmospheric Research Programme.

Charney et al 1979: Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate.


Articles


Schmidt 2007:
The physics of climate modeling


Texts
(where multiple editions exist, I attempt to give the most recent)


Brekovskich & Goncharov 1994 (original Russian text 1982): Mechanics of Continua and Wave Dynamics

Durran 1999: Numerical Methods for Wave Equations in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Springer.

Haidvogel & Beckmann 1999: Numerical Ocean Circulation Modeling. Imperial College.

Randall 2000: General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present, and Future (International Geophysics)

Griffies 2004: Fundamantals of Ocean Climate Models. Princeton

McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers 2005: A Climate Modeling Primer. Wiley

Trenberth 2010: Climate System Modeling. Cambridge Press.

17 comments:

rab said...

Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Causes, Consequences, Challenges, Schwartz, S. E. Energy Environ. Sci. 1, 430-453. doi:10.1039/b810350j

Captain Pithart said...

i only find a Cess et al 1990 "Intercomparison and Interpretation of Climate Feedback Processes in 19 Atmospheric General Circulation Models" doi:10.1029/JD095iD10p16601 - typo, or is the 17 more obscure? there's also a 1989 "Interpretation of Cloud-Climate Feedback as Produced by 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models", so this may be the case.

Captain Pithart said...

typos:
* Rahmstorf 2007: Predictions -> Projections
* Hasselmann 1997: Multi-pattern
* Bryan 1991: review, increasing

jstults said...

The concept of modeling sub-grid processes (motivated initially by the treatment of turbulence) is what turns climate process models into tractable calculations. Reynolds averaging leads to RANS. Smagorinsky's approach leads to LES. The paper by Richardson is a good early paper that uses the idea of Reynolds averaging for eddies in a gravity gradient.

Reynolds, O., On the Dynamical Theory of Incompressible Viscous Fluids and the Determination of the Criterion, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 1895 186, 123-164

Richardson, L.F., The Supply of Energy from and to Atmospheric Eddies, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character
Vol. 97, No. 686 (Jul. 1, 1920), pp. 354-373.

SMAGORINSKY, J., 1963: GENERAL CIRCULATION EXPERIMENTS WITH THE PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 91, 99–164.

barry said...

V Ramanathan, JA Coakley 1978 - Reviews of Geophysics: Climate modeling through radiative-convective models

http://climateknowledge.org:16080/figures/Rood_Climate_Change_AOSS480_Documents/Ramanathan_Coakley_Radiative_Convection_RevGeophys_%201978.pdf

barry said...

V Ramanathan, JA Coakley 1978 - Reviews of Geophysics: Climate modeling through radiative-convective models

http://climateknowledge.org:16080/figures/Rood_Climate_Change_AOSS480_Documents/Ramanathan_Coakley_Radiative_Convection_RevGeophys_%201978.pdf

EliRabett said...

In terms of influence the Hansen, Fung, Lacis, Lebedeff, ruedy and Russel 1988 JGR paper has to be right up there.

Michael Tobis said...

rab, although James' problems with Schwartz are well-known, the review seems fairly good. However, Schartz is certainly not influential, and the paper is not a review of modeling nor a makor step forward.

jstults, good suggestions but I think going back that far is not in the spirit of the list. I will set 1950 as a starting date, somewhat arbitrarily. Smagorinsky is a good suggestion.

Others, thanks. Will look at Cess et al again, fix typos, add other suggestions.

Dirk said...

When I was learning about climate models in grad school, the first paper that we read was this classic, which was one of the first 1-D EBMs around:

Budyko, MI (1969) "The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth" Tellus 21, 611-619.

MuGuffie and Henderson-Seller's textbook (A Climate Modelling Primer) is also a fantastic introductory resource that I recommend for students.

David B. Benson said...

Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling 2nd Edition
Warren M. Washington and Claire Parkinson
http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?PID=270908

David B. Benson said...

Also, here is a list of modeling successes:
http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ModelsReliable.html

Kooiti MASUDA said...

"Trenberth 2010" should be "Trenberth 1992", as the newer issue is just a reprint in paperback.

Reviews of 1-D energy balance models (placing Budyko 1969 in context):
* North, G.R., R.F. Cahalan and J.A. Coakley Jr., 1981: Energy balance climate models. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 19, 91 - 121.
* Ghil, M. and S. Childress, 1987: Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory and Climate Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 485 pp. (I mean Ghil's part of the book.)

History of climate modeling and observations:
Paul N. Edwards, 2010:
A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. MIT Press, 517 pp.

Alexander Ac said...

Great summary, thanks Michael.

And in the mean time, Benin under water:

"I've written before about floods in Niger and Abidjan, but these experiences left me poorly prepared for what I saw in Benin a few days ago.

Half the country is under water, and it's still raining."

http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/benin-under-water

Alex

Vinny Burgoo said...

Wot, no Koutsoyiannis?

Michael Tobis said...

No thanks. A classic case of self-delusion at the fringes of climate science. There is nothing surprising in his critique and no recognition of the actual achievements of the modeling enterprise.

gryposaurus said...

I'd be curious what you think of Curry's criticism of the IPCC confidence in models. It was somewhat vague and her reconstruction of the IPCC argument was, i thought, presumptuous, but I lack the knowledge on how models deal with the early 20th century problem in regards to aerosol and solar contributions, and the data used in the IPCC. I asked and she referred me to her 2 previous posts on the subject, but those were also vague in the area of uncertain data, as her section on solar had a link to a WUWT (Bob Tisdale) article that intimated that IPCC uses outdated data and another vague article by Pielke Sr. Nothing against these articles, but they didn't provide any evidence that would cause me to question the data used in the IPCC. Am I just being stubborn here or do the data sets present serious issues? I was also wondering whether the IPCC uses "inverse modelling" to a significant degree to reproduce forcing from aerosols.

David B. Benson said...

gryposaurus --- There is some very minor issue with the change of temperature recording technique for SSTs before/after WWII. There is a recent paper which more adequately handles the question of aerosols following WWII.

But it is all just a tempest in a teacup, not even big enough to need the pot.