Yet another graph of the "you ain't seen nothin' yet" variety from our friends Martin and Stefan, one which presumably some skeptic has already attacked using a linear extrapolation.
A crucial key to more-or-less genuinely skeptical misunderstanding of climate science is revealed in this question at Kloor's from kdk33:
The most difficult, almost intractable, aspect of the technical debate (IMVHO), is the time constant argument (both MT and Bart have offered this to me recently), Basically, the idea that GHG added today lock in warming for coming decades (the system has large time constants or lag times).
So, rabid deniers like myself ask to see the scary SLR data or the extreme weather data or the runaway temperature data and the scary just ain’t there. But the MTs and Barts will say the the scary is yet to come; we must act now, hurry, if we wait for confirming scary data it will be too late.
I, rabid denier, think MT and Bart sound like carnivel seers. MT and Bart, convinced their predictions are firmly grounded in science, think I’m a knuckle draggin’ republican who believes in god and other right wing fairy tales.
Their predictions AIUI are based in part on computer models and in part on their understanding of various climate forcings and responses. One the one hand, I’m forgiving if computer models don’t get all the details right – I think they are useful, even necessary, learning tools. OTOH, I do think they are (very much) abused…
So, my question to MT and Bart and other similarly minded folks (my questions are usually ignored, indicating my position on the CaS pecking order, but nevertheless) is this: What data can you show us, what evidence can you offer, to better convince people that your projections are likely to be right.
I object to the religion-baiting but otherwise it is a perceptive question
I think a really good answer will require some work. Please don't let me get away with forgetting. I think it is worthwhile, at least, agreeing that this is a sticking point.
But if anyone cares to venture a quick answer, please give it a try.