and uncertainty about uncertainty about uncertainty...
There's a Godel-Escher-Bach strange loop flavor to trying to think rationally about decisionmaking in uncertain circumstances. Wherever recursion appears, life gets interesting.
Anyway, the conversation on the topic on the globalchange list is worth a look, especially for the more mathematically inclined.
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Moderation is on. Apologies for any delays.
Err on the side of politesse and understatement please.
Before you speak, ask yourself if what you have to say will improve on silence.