"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Global Temperature Graph

I am getting Google hits for people searching for "Global Temperature Graph", but they haven't been getting what they are searching for. Allow me to fix this.

Recent temperatures:

The instrumental record:

The historical period:

Want longer time periods? Want more info? Want other revealing graphics?

Go to the excellent website globalwarmingart.com , whence these figures are lifted and where they are explained in detail.


Dano said...

What they may be looking for, Michael, is the actual temperature (e.g. 15.7ยบ) , so they can check the mendacicizing by shills about "heeeey, it was the same temp in 1982, duhh, there's no globul warmin' "

Just a thought.



David Duff said...

Mikey, Mikey, Mikey! You should hang your head in shame re-using those old graphs that had holes blown in their scientific veracity years ago. Today, or a few days ago to be precise, even Hansen's old boss said the NASA science was "useless", that Hansen had been an embarrassment and the models were as bent as as a nine dollar note - or words to that effect.

I came across this other day which seems applicable:

I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.” Leo Tolstoy

Michael Tobis said...

No major correction to the presented graphs is necessary. Admittedly, there is a little downward blip at the end that postdates these figures. The story they tell is unchanged.

It seems the claim that Theon was in any sense Hansen's supervisor is, as might easily have been anticipated, untrue.

Does Tolstoy allow you a special exemption on this matter?

Michael Tobis said...

On second thought, perhaps my answer goes too far. It seems that Theon was indeed higher in the GISS hierarchy than Hansen and probably interacted with Hansen on occasion.

It would be presumptious for anyone outside the organization to guess how the relationship worked. If Hansen wants to say nothing about it, I don't think it's right for Gavin to express an opinion.

If Hansen is too polite to contest Theon's characterization, we should give this one a bye.

This doesn't amount to much on the substance, but I think we have to call the issue indeterminate. I apologize for the tone of my previous reply and withdraw it pending any reply from Dr. Hansen.

David Dudd said...

Always the gentleman, Michael, and I would expect no less from you.

Ian Random said...

Try this pic:


Michael Tobis said...

Cherry picking and scaling tricks. The forcing in that period if we have it exactly right is comparable to the interannual variability.

You have to step back further to see the result, as you can see in the other graphs. The one you point to is, I believe, designed to mislead.