"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Thursday, June 11, 2009

More Drought, More Severe Storms

People are always asking whether this is a contradiction, whether this doesn't amount to everything being evidence of global warming.

No. More rainfall in less severe events in the southern US would be counterevidence.

As I am just plugging everything back in after getting the only rain in the whole south in an intense and scary burst, it suddenly occurred to me that the picture might tell the story plainly enough.


See? One severe possibly tornadic storm (right over mt's house as it happens) and lots of nothing much else at the same time.

It could get more like this. There are reasons to suspect that it will. Make sense now?

1 comment:

John Mashey said...

So, say some more about the different sorts of effects:

a) In a place, the average rainfall is the same, but the distribution changes to having fewer, stronger rainfalls.

b) In some place, the average rainfall changes because the rain goes elsewhere. The "place" might include the upstream watersheds.

Maybe say some more about Texas, as per Texas & water.