Curry Cannot Back Down

Judith Curry cannot easily take my advice and let her half-baked innovations about reasoning under uncertainty alone:

NG34A-03
308 (Moscone South)
Dec 15 4:30 PM - 4:45 PM

[note from mt -the above is to say, the annual Fall AGU meeting in SF]

Climate Surprises, Catastrophes and Fat Tails (Invited)
J. A. Curry

Low-probability, high-consequence events provide particular challenges
to developing robust policies to reduce vulnerability to climate
variability and change. Forced and unforced climate variability may
produce surprises that are abrupt or discontinuous, and extreme events
such as landfalling major hurricanes, floods, extreme heat waves and
droughts can have catastrophic impacts. Inadequacies of the IPCC
scenario simulations for conceptualizing surprises and catastrophes
arise from inadequate consideration of natural climate variability,
model inadequacies, and consideration of a range of scenarios of
natural and anthropogenic forcing that is much too narrow. Hence pdfs
constructed from climate model simulations have the potential to
seriously mislead, and a broader framework is needed to imagine future
abrupt climate change and extreme events. A method for evaluating the
possibility of future events is described that integrates the concepts
evidence support logic, modal falsification and possibility theory.

h/t James. She's got to say something then, whether she blogs about it between now and then or not. So she'd better get baking.