"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Saturday, May 7, 2011

30 Day Precip Anomaly: Mississippi & Ohio Rivers



http://water.weather.gov/precip/

For those from far away, the bright magenta area denotes over 8" or about 20 cm anomaly, and the area with that large of an anomaly is clearly larger than the area of Great Britain and comparable to that of France. It's almost entirely in the Mississippi watershed and this water will shortly present challenges to the complex flood control system around New Orleans.



6 comments:

EliRabett said...

Nashville 2010. A Thousand year storm then, every year now.

Steve Scolnik said...

That was Nashville, this is Memphis.

Ted Kirkpatrick said...

Doug Kahn provides a detailed discussion of the history of Mississippi flood control and the imminent risk to New Orleans. (h/t Digby)

susan said...

wv maps show area getting it in the neck again:
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

France is bigger than I thought.

Great work, as usual.

susan said...

Been thinking about flood statistics and it reminded me that when I started paying attention to world weather I was startled by the difference in what counts as a flood in different regions. 11 inches in India or Indonesia is a flood but AFAIK not so very unusual (and/or getting less so). Here in Boston something a little short of 3 inches is pretty serious.

However, in the last decade, the normal flood in all regions that have floods has become much bigger and more frequent. I can see where extreme storms break the mold, but their precipitation data should be possible to fold in with other kinds of floods. I'm sure this, being obvious, is a case of grandma and eggs, what wotthehell, mizewell say it.

I don't see how that statistic can be ignored, but the fake skeptics are all over it digging out historical records for each and every one.

It's the clusters (uck, I hate that ad).

Adam said...

My friend who lives near Plaquemine, LA will be losing his home to this event if the Morganza control structure is opened.

http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20110509/NEWS01/110509023

The cruel inevitability of this, two weeks in the future, gives me a a feeling of sickening helplessness I've never felt before. The whole world should be getting the same feeling about what is to come.