I think it's an excellent example of communication of complex issues to a mass audience.
I like how the rich imagery is interwoven with interviews with major players and with various versions of an actually informative infographic. This is good public communication of bad news*.
* = (Except that "Houston, we have a problem" is sort of getting a bit trite around these parts, but I guess we Texans weren't the taaaget odience, roit?)
The whole of that episode of Catalyst was terrific.
ReplyDeleteOil was the centrepiece, but the shorter items on nuclear, algae, geothermal in the Rift Valley and sustainable housing were all pretty good.
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/oilcrunch/
when does coal to liquid kick in? It should already start to be economically sound?
ReplyDeleteWe need to build out renewable generation and associated infrastructure while there's oil to be had.
ReplyDeleteWhat's not not clear is whether the calculations of available reserves include or ignore the fictional increase in claimed reserves in the middle-east.
It also underlines the fact that unless Western Governments get their acts together, that the fact that 1 kg of food requires 1 kg of oil (at the farm gate - that's no packaging, transport to the shops or processing). Many people are going to go very hungry.
ReplyDeleteAmoeba, that is far too gloomy of a picture.
ReplyDeleteFirst, it is a calorie of fuel per calorie of food, according to Vaclav Smil as reported here (by Rust I think) in a recent food thread.
Second, it doesn't have to be liquid fuel. Indeed, some of it has to be natural gas (the nitrogen fertilizer part).
Converting tractors & combines to run on electricity or gas may not be easy and will continue the process of driving smaller operators out of business. But it isn't impossible in principle.
For good or ill there's plenty of coal. And this is really what's wrong with the peak oil picture. After all, to the extent that liquid fuels are necessary, coal to liquid (CTL) tech can step in, albeit at a higher price than we are used to.
So, no, we aren't going to all start starving next week for want of oil. I haven't seen much decline in the amazing bounty of the typical yuppie supermarket except perhaps in the seafood section.
The relationship between energy, money and food needs some serious thought. Stuff will happen, and of course the poorest people in the poorest societies will suffer the most. But if oil were the only problem, I do not think we would end up with a food crisis.
That said, there are not four more Saudi Arabias to meet foreseeable demand; there probably isn't even one. And the more we pretend otherwise, the harsher the shift and the more it starts butting up against all the other things that shift now that there are no more untapped frontiers.
Michael - Good summary. I am becoming more worried about what peak oil will do to carbon emissions than running out of oil per se. Coal and unconventionals, seen as inevitable and necessary replacements for declining oil, are what will really kill us, or rather, get us to the point where we manage to enjoy the worst of both worlds: declining access to energy in an increasingly unstable climate system taken beyond various points of no return.
ReplyDelete