"Our greatest responsibility is to be good ancestors."

-Jonas Salk

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Signs and Portents


This (updating) image, from the Department of Geophysics of the Icelandic Meteorlogical Service, shows locations of earthquakes in Mýrdalsjökull and Eyjafjallajökull for the last 48 hour period.

Hat tip to Mark Liberman of Language Log of all people.

Lifting text directly from Liberman,
Mýrdalsjökull (the "mire valley glacier") covers the volcano Katla. According to the Wikipedia article,

In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have triggered subsequent Katla eruptions. Following the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, on 20 April 2010 Icelandic President Ólafur Grímsson said "the time for Katla to erupt is coming close … we [Iceland] have prepared … it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption".
Also, via Wikipedia,
It is thought that Katla is the source of the Vedde Ash (more than 6 to 7 cubic kilometers (1.4 to 1.7 cu mi) of tephra dated to 10,600 years BP) found at a number of sites including Norway, Scotland and North Atlantic cores. Sixteen eruptions have been documented since 930. The last major eruption occurred in 1918, although there may have been small eruptions that did not break the ice cover in 1955[1] and 1999.The 1918 eruption resulted in extending the southern coast by 5 km due to laharic flood deposits. The present volcanic repose since 1918 is among the longest known in historic times.
The spectacular (public domain) photo of the 1918 eruption is also via Wikipedia.

Is Climate Modeling Still Stuck?

Is climate modeling wandering down a garden path?

Is it time for a blank slate?

It seems timely to revive this conversation. Hat tips to Steve Easterbrook and MrPete for the reminder.

see also:
Staying Geeky

Excised Paragraphs

NCAR vs Google

Friday, June 11, 2010

Flash Flood in Arkansas Park Kills At Least 16


Police say at least 16 people have been killed in flash floods at a state park in western Arkansas. Reports say more than 40 people are still unaccounted for.

The park is situated in a valley between two heavily forested hills, near the Little Missouri River. The "little Mo" watershed got hit with 5" to 9" of rain within a very short period of time. The water level went from 3 feet to 23 feet between the hours of approximately 11:00pm to around 3:00am.

Bill Sadler from the Arkansas State Police said they would continue rescue efforts a long as necessary. The park does not require campers to register, so it was unclear how many people remained missing or if any people managed to escape the racing waters to pull themselves onto the shore.

Some Free Associations on a Friday Morning

Something Beeville Going On

I've been trying to come up with a pun about "Beeville" and "evil" (without casting any aspersions on Beeville) for the title of a follow-up article on the Beeville hoax story. The best I can do is "Something Beeville going on" but that's a reference to an obscure vintage blues tune that will mostly be familiar to people who listen to WHPK on Monday nights; it's the theme song of the wonderful vintage blues program "The Evil Show".

So I went trolling for quotations on "evil" and there are some doozies here, unfortunately all of them somewhat obscure. One of the ones that sticks with me is this one:

The creed of evil has been, since the beginnings of highly industrialized society, not only a precursor of barbarism but a mask of good. The worth of the latter was transferred to the evil that drew to itself all the hatred and resentment of an order which drummed good into its adherents so that it could with impunity be evil.

THEODOR WIESENGRUND ADORNO


In other words, evil usually wears a mask of propriety and decency. This can be compared to the one about the road to hell being paved with good intentions. The additional feature is that hatred and viciousness remains hidden behind a mask of decency. These things usually begin with some core of positive intent. The original intent eventually fades, and yet reference to the original good intent is kept as a sort of a mask for truly heinous behavior with very malign consequences.

Whither Climate Audit?

This thought is much with me as I contemplate the deterioration of "Climate Audit".

It has now become impossible to engage with most participants in the "Climategate" clique, by which I mean the people who have somehow convinced themselves that the stolen CRU emails should somehow impact the climate policy debate.

What I've learned from my recent foray into their circles is that they have a shibboleth. You have to denounce somebody, preferably Michael Mann or Phil Jones, but Lonnie Thompson or Gerry North, apparently, will do in a pinch. Anyway, a denunciation of one of their betes noires is like a passport to entry. We saw the same with some of the CA regulars' visits to this blog: denounce Mann or no conversation is possible.

This of course means no conversation is possible. Scientists do not ordinarily denounce other scientists on the basis of hearsay and casual Googling. It's totally outside the realm of scientific skepticism to do so. Nothing is more extraordinary in science than to bring ad hominem conversation into substantive debate. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

In fact, such a statement pretty much never happens if there isn't direct supervisory or editorial responsibility for the allegedly fraudulent material.

So even if I were to have some suspicions drummed into me by the incessant denialist drumbeat, I would as a matter of propriety avoid repeating them, never mind endorsing them. The same applies to anyone connected to the scientific tradition.

Thus we fail the litmus test and are summarily excluded from the circle of civilized communication as the Climate Audit community would have it. Consequently, the already weak communication channels between the "auditors" and the scientific community are severed, by the actions of the auditors, in a way that allows them to convince themselves that they are behaving ethically.

This is exactly how evil originates in the world.

The Real Problems that CA Addresses in an Ineffectual Way

This is all very unfortunate. There really are problems in science, including in climate science. I am pleased that Dr. Curry uses the word "anachronism" in a recent posting there. I am not sure whether she recently picked it up from me. But yes, the structure of public sector science is anachronistic, and this has severe consequences for its productivity and for its interface with the public. And in its early days, Climate Audit was at least somewhat in tune with those problems, and may have made some positive contributions to the open science movement.

At this point, though, CA has become a toxic ally for those of us interested in reforming science.

Under the pretense of a search for openness, it has become an umbrella for hostility to science; the presumption that climate science is devoid of meaningful content, that its practice is essentially conspiratorial, and its practitioners verging on criminal, pervades the atmosphere. Any attempt to engage requires denunciations of particular individuals or particular actions. Efforts to raise the underlying issues are treated as hand-waving. It's become a misanthropist club.

The Connection between Science and Policy

This all matters more than it ought to. Nobody takes these people seriously except 1) journalists and editors and 2) staffers for very "conservative" politicians. (I can't really remove the scare quotes: I don't think their impulses are literally conservative; it's become a very high-risk ideology, not only in environmental policy but also in international relations.) But those are some awfully influential groups.

Which in turn reminds me of Neil DeGrasse Tyson's argument for the necessity for recognition of real science in political debate.

This is all tied together by a wonderful lecture by a prominent New Zealand scientist and chief science advisor to the NZ goverment, Peter Gluckman, as reported in Hot Topic. He says:
in an electronically connected world the tactics of those who reject the consensus, whatever their motives, can undermine confidence in the entire science system. In a world that is increasingly dependent on science in many domains, I cannot regard it as helpful to actively promote distrust and suspicion of the scientific process for political ends.
and
The issue here that concerns me is that of how to communicate complex science. The public has a right to understand these issues and in the end they determine how society will respond. However without responsible media it is not clear how this can be achieved.
Almost as if he were a regular reader of this blog! (More likely, the points he makes are just correct, so independent diligent observers come to the same conclusion.)

Full Circle

And so we come back to Climate Audit and its approach, which claims to respect and defend the scientific method, while simultaneously actually attacking it. By turning a demand for openness and statistical precision into a venue for vendettas and an excuse for know-nothing populism, it applies a very bad odor to calls for open science.

This puts those of us who understand the need for more formalism and more openness in the science in a very awkward position. We certainly don't want to be seen as participating in the persecution of senior members of the community who have given good service to it, and especially to aiding and abetting those who want to convince the public that we have no results at all.

Steve McIntyre has a choice to make. He can encourage or discourage this antisocial behavior. From all appearances he has succumbed to the darker side of his nature, and his followers have duly followed.

He may have difficulty backing out of this position, and I sympathize. But if he doesn't find the courage to do so, he will end up doing great damage, not just to climate science, and not just (as may be obvious) to climate policy, but to the whole alarmingly shaky enterprise of reason-based civilization.

Failing that unlikely outcome, engaging with the Climate Audit group is, I can report, not a promising prospect.

Update: Some major edits for clarity. I really liked this piece but it didn't seem to get through to anyone else, so I'm trying again...

Further Update: Still trying to engage over there. Eschenbach seems to be trying to prevent it; he spent some effort going through this whole site to find comments that would be maximally irritating to McIntyre followers with some success. His last comment was a tad conciliatory though, so who knows. I really don;t understand those people very well, that's for sure.

On the whole, though, I am still finding the environment there far more hostile and narrow than it was prior to the CRU incident. I am still trying to figure out what they are so worked up about from their own "climategatist" point of view. They find it hard to accept that I made some serious effort to figure that out in the past to no avail.


Image from Laughing Squid's Flickr stream, (C) (CC) Attribution-Noncommercial 2.0 Generic

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Offshore Oil in the Gulf


Via National Geographic and an interesting recent article in The Oil Drum on the oilicane problem.

This is Totally Unfair

Seriously. Don't watch it. It isn't at all like what happened. But...

Lion's Den

I wandered over to Climate Audit last night in a moment of weakness. I had heard that I would receive a thoughtful and open-minded reception. See what you think.

Steve doesn't care for policy discussions, so here is what I wanted to post to this comment by Eschenbach.
Good Lord! Even your straw men have straw men!

My claim was that there are "people who understand the climate system much better than most of the regulars here". Then you proceeded to argue against the proposition that there are "people who understand the climate system". Well, not exactly argue.

However, if you believe that there is insufficient knowledge to project the evolution of the system for a century even crudely, I presume you would be very wary of changing its bulk radiative properties, right? If I were as contemptuous about climate science as you I'd be far more terrified of any global changes in concentration of radiatively active components than I am now.

There are several ways to constrain the global sensitivity of temperature to CO2 concentration, of which millenial reconstructions is the weakest, for reasons better known to readers of this group than to myself. There are other ways to estimate that key quantity. So reduced to that one quantity, we have a pretty good handle on it. It's too big to be comfortable postponing decarbonizing the economy until we run out of carbon.

But if you don't believe that, you have no way of knowing whether we are very close to utter catastrophe. So you should support cutting back on carbon emissions in the most drastic urgency.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Willard explains blogging

Via IM:

All blog posts are the same:

1. Here, look at A.
2. See how it's stupid
3. Maybe we should ponder on that.
4. Instead of a conclusion, look at that link I just fished in a ten second search.
- Willard, schematically

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

The Swag

A minor but (perhaps sadly) amusing point regarding the Beeville hoax story.

Here are closeups of the stuff Julisa got along with the infamous letter, clipped from the photo taken by (and kindly provided to Irene by) Sarah Taylor of the Bee-Picayune.




This all explains the two logos on the letter. Apparently the perpetrator could not come up with a high resolution NSF logo for the trophies, and resorted to clip art that says "SCIENCE" on it. (The objects designated on the pedestal are obviously a telescope, a microscope, and, um, a corn dog.) So for consistency, the clip art logo appeared on the letterhead.




Update: It didn't take long for somebody to find the original. (h/t JM) Here's a similar item available in single quantity. Here's what appears to be the logo itself:




Update 6/19: Links to Beeville stories by myself and others here

Ezra Klein is Badly Wrong on Climate Policy

At the Washington Post, Ezra Klein thinks he is advocating for a strong climate policy when he says:
One of the conceptual difficulties with trying to evaluate various energy bills is that the problem of climate change is qualitatively different than other problems. Usually, whether a bill makes a problem better is the primary question underlying whether senators should vote to pass it. But with climate change, if we don't stabilize carbon emissions, it's game over. So it's hard to know what to say about a bill that would move us forward on clean energy while still not doing nearly enough.
But he is wrong. Stabilizing carbon emissions is just a small beginning, and indeed there is some indication that it has already happened in America. What is required by the physics of the situation is stable concentrations, which in turn means near-zero net emissions.

The confusion endemic in the policy sector and the press about this is awfully tedious. Efforts from people who have some understanding of the science to make exactly this point have been ongoing for a long time, to very little effect.

As Dr. Ken Caldeira says:
I compare CO2 emissions to mugging little old ladies…. It is wrong to mug little old ladies and wrong to emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The right target for both mugging little old ladies and carbon dioxide emissions is zero.