"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Saturday, August 16, 2008

De Nile

Everybody's favorite river seems to flow in every corner of the world.

For instance, consider how quickly Floridians stop worrying about hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Dot Earth reports that US science agencies shy away from the question of how to deal with the fractured communications between science and the public. I have to say that when I first heard about this issue I had some doubts about Glantz's association with NCAR but he makes a very cogent case.

 

1 comment:

thingsbreak said...

MT,

There is a paper by James Elsner in press at GRL that was also a presentation at the April AMS conference relating to an inverse sunspot number-tropical cyclone intensity relationship in the Caribbean. Elsner hypothesizes that the solar influence on the lower stratosphere provides a "lid" on storm intensity.

If, if, if this hypothesis has any merit, I assume the implication would be that continued stratospheric cooling due to anthropogenic emissions would have the same effect as lower solar activity and result in increased cyclone intensity for that region.

Something else for Floridians to keep in mind when considering a possible hurricane-AGW link.