"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Would be a Nice Tool

The Nature Conservancy has some global change projections available at http://www.climatewizard.org/index.html

It's a nice looking page. Unfortunately, the attention to presentation exceeds the attention to detail. Several model views are available as well as an ensemble average, but the latter is identical to the HadCM output.

Hope this gets fixed soon so we can have a little more confidence in what we are looking at. I have contacted them with a bug report.


Jorge said...

I programmed the web interface for this tool. I appreciate your help in reporting a bug. I am having some trouble reproducing it. If you could let me know for what time period and geography you noticed it, that would be very helpful.

I checked the output for the United States and for several individual states and countries and did not see the problem you did. Sometimes when the differences between the models are subtle the ensemble will be very similar to one or several of the individual models. I have included links to the files that are displayed for the United States for the "End Century" projections. If you open each in a separate tab you can switch back and forth to see the subtle differences. Although no legend is provided when you do it this way, you can get one on the actual page.





Also perhaps there is an issue with the javascript that swaps the images out when a new selection is made. I did test on all the major browsers (IE, Chrome, Safari and Firefox) and it works on those. So I can't say for sure if it works on one of the others, or if you might have some setting that disables javascript.

Vinny Burgoo said...

It would be nice if the colour keys were the same for the United States and Global maps. A change of 10 deg F doesn't equal a change of 8 deg C yet they share the same colour. This denies the full range of colours to the Global maps and makes the US projections look more extreme.

Also, the 2050 Global maps are labelled '2100'. (Any chance of getting 2100 projections for the UK?)

And I agree that the Hadley maps look the same as the Ensemble Average - for the UK, anyway.

A very useful tool, though. Thanks. (And thanks to MT for linking to it.)

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