"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Aardvark and No Play

"aardvark" has a plausible summary of the state of play at the well site. Be sure to click through to the diagram while you read it. I am not saying that everything there is right (I am not qualified to say either way) but it certainly offers some insight into the flavor of the technical problem.

Comment 7 on this Dot Earth article is somewhat simpler, and also tells the story quite well.

8 comments:

Hank Roberts said...

This is a link from that thread you point to, it's the first one that clearly identifies the location of one of the often seen views: http://bittooth.blogspot.com/2010/05/deepwater-oil-spill-restarting-mud-and.html

That's the place the riser is bent over past 90 degrees above the BOP, if I read it right.

Hank Roberts said...

Maddening. Last comment at the WKRG video page was stopped for a long time showing the bent over pipe at the top of the BOP, same one identified in the thread Aardvark started.

The poster at WKRG mentions something happening with a specific timestamp:

"I am saying at 4:07 am this morning that pipe above burst wide open ...."

No clue what's really going on.
Very curious what the Herc 6 Plume Monitoring video shows, several people have commented it now looks like the flow is doming out of something down in a hole, but that could be perspective if it's a view from almost overhead looking down at the seabed.

Hank Roberts said...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6523#more

Deepwater Oil Spill - The LMRP Attempt, the "Press Conference," and a Live Open Thread

Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 29, 2010 - 7:30pm

BP is now saying that its Top Kill approach has failed, and it is moving on to LMRP. A few comments from the press:

湘嬌湘嬌 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Hank Roberts said...

Oy!

http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/article/bp-ceo-disputes-claims-of-underwater-oil-plumes/891587/May-30-2010_4-19-pm/

偉誠 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Hank Roberts said...

Finally something informative:
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/downloads_pdfs/Riser_Removal_large.jpg

Hank Roberts said...

resources:
https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AYETicASkH8SZGZmN3ptcXpfN2M2cmR3c2M5&hl=en