"System change is now inevitable. Either because we do something about it, or because we will be hit by climate change. '...

"We need to develop economic models that are fit for purpose. The current economic frameworks, the ones that dominate our governments, these frameworks... the current economic frameworks, the neoclassical, the market frameworks, can deal with small changes. It can tell you the difference, if a sock company puts up the price of socks, what the demand for socks will be. It cannot tell you about the sorts of system level changes we are talking about here. We would not use an understanding of laminar flow in fluid dynamics to understand turbulent flow. So why is it we are using marginal economics, small incremental change economics, to understand system level changes?"

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

And Still Going

I'm still not sure exactly what UAH AMSU channel 4 actually tells us (click for higher resolution)

but it just set a new record, exceeding the record set just about a year ago. Hard to blame it on El Nino anymore. Is this meaningful?


Steve Bloom said...

I had the impression that the near-surface layer data isn't too reliable, plus IIRC that graphic shows data that hasn't been completely processed. Also, Channel 5 is what generally gets used for comparisons with the pre-AMSU satellite record since it aligns more or less with the old MSU TLT channel.

Michael Tobis said...

Maybe, but it's apples and apples. If the processing hasn't changed, and the instrument hasn't changed, something in the environment has.

Michael Tobis said...

Also, though the graph isn't as striking, channel 5 has also been in all-time record territory for several days.

NewYork said...

As I understand it, there's a lag of a few months between ENSO and global temperature, so I guess current global temperature is still influenced by weak el Nino conditions. If a fairly strong la Nina develops, as is the mean prediction, expect at least another 0.3 C drop in the satellite anomalies - less of a drop in the surface record. Then when the la Nina effect peaks, we'll get more blog posts and articles similar to this one:

Global Cooling

...perhaps right as 2010 is reported as a record or a tied record in the surface product.

Gareth said...

OT sorry, but I want to get this out as widely as possible. Monckton has now posted at WUWT asking for people to flood John Abraham's university with calls for disciplinary action. As a consequence, I have posted this:

We the undersigned offer unreserved support for John Abraham and St. Thomas University in the matter of complaints made to them by Christopher Monckton. Professor Abraham provided an important public service by showing in detail Monckton’s misrepresentation of the science of climate, and we applaud him for that effort, and St. Thomas University for making his presentation available to the world.

If you support Abraham, please visit Hot Topic and leave a comment in support.


EliRabett said...

Either it is as hot as hell, or the on board black body has got hold of some lipstick.